TOP UEFA Euro 2024 countries teams Favourites…
1. France (Group D)
Didier Deschamps is the longest-tenured manager at this tournament and one of the three longest-serving European international managers ever. Given that France lost the Euro final in 2016, won the World Cup in 2018, and then finished as runner-up to Argentina in the epic 2022 final, Deschamps probably has the job for life if he wants it. France could field two entirely different teams that could make a deep run in this tournament. Interestingly, Deschamps brought veteran N’Golo Golo Kanté into the squad even though he looked diminished as a defensive midfielder the last time Europe saw him at the club level, before his move to Saudi Arabia. Deschamps also seems to prefer Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konaté at center back to Arsenal’s William Saliba, widely recognized as one of the best in his position in the Premier League. Thirty-seven-year-old Olivier Giroud has been the go-to international striker for an entire generation, but he’s MLS bound, and Marcus Thuram’s excellent
form for Inter this year will at least make things tricky for Deschamps.
France is a menacing opponent because it is capable of creating chances from everywhere. Kylian Mbappé is widely considered the best player in the tournament. Whether he’s staying wide out of possession as an immediate outlet for transition or inverting toward the center of the pitch when France is in possession, he’s a nightmare matchup for any defense. His combinations with fullback Theo Hernández on the left flank were an
essential piece of France’s attacks in the World Cup. Antoine Griezmann might be past his peak, but he has played at a high level as a primary creator for Atlético Madrid in the past two seasons.
The emergence of young midfielders like Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouameni has improved France’s defense, which looked quite shaky in the Euro 2020 tournament. France is extremely passive out of possession and offers little to no pressing, which can leave it vulnerable to quality possession-
possession-based attacks. Germany showed this in its 2-0 win against France in a March friendly. Deschamps has built the team to be solid in defensive transitions, though, and France beat the Dutch 4-0 and 2-1 in qualifying for the tournament.
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
2. England (Group C)
Non-England fans are probably tired of the phrase “It’s coming home,” but they’ll hear it again and again over the next month anyway because this squad is as good as any Gareth Southgate has ever had. Whatever you believe about the origins of the sport known as football or why England’s men haven’t won a major international trophy since 1966, the team combines the best defense in the Euro 2024 qualifying round with emerging superstar attackers.
No team conceded fewer expected goals per match than England in all Euro qualifying matches. Southgate has consistently prioritized defensive solidity throughout his tenure, often at the expense of maximizing the ceiling of his talented attackers. This squad isn’t without its questions, as center backs Harry Maguire (injury) and Jarrad Branthwaite (manager decision) won’t be involved, and John Stones has struggled with fitness most of the club season. Usual left back Luke Shaw is in a race against the clock to be fit enough to start the tournament. Despite these defensive questions, the system established under Southgate has given England an extraordinarily high international floor.
England will not get the same bonus it had in Euro 2020, when six of the nation’s seven matches, including the semifinal and final, were played in its national stadium of Wembley. Given that Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, and Phil Foden all just had career breakout seasons at their respective clubs and Harry Kaneremains one of the best strikers in the world, the defensive question marks might force Southgate to lean on England’s supreme attacking talent more than he’d usually prefer.
The narrative surrounding England’s failures at the international level is simply a narrative of yesteryear. English fans may indeed have been a bit delusional about their talent and aspirations in the past, but a penalty shoot-out loss to Italy in 2021 and a coin-flip loss to eventual runner-up France in Qatar in 2022 show thatEngland is a worthy favorite to win this competition. We’ll quickly learn how Southgate is approaching this tournament from his role for Bellingham. Whether he’s a more deep-lying midfielder or a goal-scoring threat will be instructive.
Player to watch: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)
3. Germany (Group A)
Germany has largely been a disaster on the international stage since its Euro 2016 semifinal loss to France. The Germans failed to get out of their World Cup group in 2018 and then lost 2-0 to England in the round of 16 in Euro 2020 (and before that, they’d come close to losing to Hungary and going out in the group stage once again). Manager Hansi Flick was expected to turn the German national team around after his very successful stint at Bayern Munich, but a draw with Spain and a shock loss to Japan sent Germany out in the group stage in Qatar. That means the team hasn’t won a tournament knockout tie since a June 2016 penalty shoot-out victory against Italy in the Euro quarterfinals. Flick is now managing Barcelona, and the national team has hired the country’s brightest young coaching mind to sort out its personnel deficiencies: Julian Nagelsmann.
Known for its ruthless efficiency in years past, Germany’s inefficiencies in front of goal knocked it out of Qatar. Playing direct in transition and defending without the ball have become more important than possession dominance in international soccer, so Germany’s issues with defensive transition have led to significant issues in goal prevention. In Qatar, no nation created more expected goals in the group stage than Germany, and Nagelsmann’s best solution seems to be starting Kai Havertz, who is not a traditional striker but remains a quality all-around forward.
The reason to be excited about Germany is the two players who play right behind Havertz. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz are budding superstars for Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, respectively. Both have elite dribbling ability and chance creation skills in space.
Toni Kroos is in his final tournament as the midfield maestro; Joshua Kimmich is a more than capable right back who can also play defensive midfield when Germany is in possession and doesn’t want to be exposed. Germany will play this tournament at home, and no team in its group (Hungary, Scotland, Switzerland) has the firepower to keep pace. Nagelsmann lost to Turkey and Austria in friendlies in the fall but did beat a full-strength France and Netherlands this spring. Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rudiger are a reliable center back duo, and Nagelsmann’s usually complex possession structures are Germany’s best bet for solving its transition woes. If Havertz continues his good finishing run at Arsenal this spring, Germany will be as good as anyone in this tournament. There’s not much width in the projected starting XI, which makes substitute winger Leroy Sané and left back Maximilian Mittelstadt especially important. A potential quarterfinal against Spain looms.
Player to watch: Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich)
